Wales likely Rugby World Cup starting XV now compared and predicted four years ago
International rugby players will know best for themselves that a lot can change in the four-year cycle of the Rugby World Cup, as well as in much shorter periods of time.
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Now, as we get closer to the start of the tournament on September 8th, it's time to compare these predictions to Warren Gatland's likely starting team - seven players have stood the test of time. Let's take a look at the full lineups:
Full-back
Predicted starter in 2019: Liam Williams
Arguably the position in which Wales had the most difficulty in terms of succession planning, Williams was and remains the clear favorite in the 15th uniform in France despite his impending departure from Welsh rugby to Japan.
The fact that Lee Halfpenny remains the only frontline option on the wider current team further highlights the lack of prospects for the position. Players like Josh Adams and Louis Rees-Zammit have the potential to be cornerbacks, but Williams is the best option, and that prediction looks solid.
Right wing
Predicted starter in 2019: George North
Likely starter now: Louis Rees-Zammit
We had George North as a predicted starting winger when the last tournament started and he remains an important member of the team. But his rise to center on the international scene coincided with the emergence of Rees-Zammit, a player whose raw speed and true X-factor now make him Gatland's likely pick.
Outside centre
Predicted starter in 2019: Owen Lane
Likely starter now: George North
North was flying off center and looked like a solid bet to start with the Lions in 2021 before he got injured. Since then, he has struggled to reach those heights, but now he is in full form and would be the favorite to hold off Mason Grady's challenge of how things stand.
Maine looked a good bet to emerge as a genuine height Test player four years ago but injury problems and a lack of consistent form mean he is now well down the pecking order and not in the Wales wider Rugby World Cup training squad. He has enough size and ability to continue to enter the international arena, and he is only 25 years old. He plays more on the flank for Cardiff but the school of thought has always been that he can do real damage in midfield. But not this year.
Inside centre
Predicted starter in 2019: Owen Watkin
Likely starter now: Nick Tompkins
It's actually very difficult to determine who is most likely to play for Wales in 12th form at the Rugby World Cup. Joe Hawkins was the obvious choice after being handed the jersey for most of the 2023 Six Nations, but his move to Exeter ruined that and visibly upset the Wales coaching staff, with Warren Gatland admitting his decision to leave Welsh rugby, thereby ruling himself out. Test selection - it was hard to understand.
Some argue that Johnny Williams fits Gatland's form perfectly, but Tompkins' solidity, experience and good form for the Saracens may give him an advantage. He certainly didn't compete in 2019 until Wayne Pivak broke him out of exile in England. Rugby World Cup fans can buy Wales Rugby World Cup Tickets from our website.
Four years ago, it was Owen Watkin who seemed the obvious next in line for the role of new midfield talent. His defense is strong and his international career is far from over, but worries about his creativity and being fired due to a serious injury in 2023 have him falling behind. A prediction that didn't pan out this time around, but he could still play in Wales midfield after the Rugby World Cup if he can find his best form and keep improving.
Left wing
Predicted starter in 2019: Josh Adams
Likely starter now: Josh Adams
Four years ago, Adams hit the headlines by topping the Rugby World Cup scoring charts with six assists. He remains an outstanding performer, even if his form has faltered a little lately. However, as predicted, he will surely start at number 11 despite pressure from the back three from Rio Dier and Alex Cuthbert.
Outside-half
Predicted starter in 2019: Gareth Anscombe
Likely starter now: Dan Biggar
Only Jonathan Davies has played as a midfielder for Wales at the age of 34 in almost 100 years, so we predicted this Rugby World Cup might be too far for Biggar after the 2019 tournament is over.
Anscombe, who was brutally denied the opportunity to play in this worldwide show due to a serious warm-up knee injury, seemed the most likely option, especially with Gatland checking his name as the Wales player who missed the most last time.
However, it was a long way back for the Japanese star and he couldn't consistently show what level he really is. The August warm-ups give him a chance to really put pressure on Biggar while the impressive Sam Costelow bids his time.
Biggar remains acting president, but I do not exclude that Anscombe usurps him before the end of the tournament.
Scrum-half
Predicted starter in 2019: Tomos Williams
Likely starter now: Tomos Williams
The scrum half in recent years has been an odd position in the Wales team, with no one claiming the jersey as their own.
Reece Webb seemed to do it unexpectedly by taking on a master class against Italy in the Six Nations this year, but his subsequent departure from international rugby means Williams will once again be the favourite. The Cardiff player is known to have recently impressed Gatland in training and is ahead of Gareth Davis and Kieran Hardy in the pecking order, with all three potentially reaching the final. Solid forecast here.
Loosehead prop
Predicted starter in 2019: Wyn Jones
Likely starter now: Gareth Thomas
Jones appeared to have put an end to it four years ago and his trajectory over the next two years has been positive, culminating in an impressive contribution to Gatland's Lions tour in 2021. Wayne Pivak publicly questioned his fitness at first, before being completely ignored by Gatland for the wider practice team.
Reece Carré was another we predicted to bring Jones closer this time around, but he was left out of the team after failing to hit targets at the start of this Rugby World Cup process. RWC 2023 fans can buy England Vs Chile Tickets from our website.
This leaves Gareth Thomas and Nicky Smith as top contenders for the win, with Thomas considered the favorite due to Smith's previous attempts at the Welsh squad despite outstanding regional form.
Hooker
Predicted starter in 2019: Dewi Lake
Likely starter now: Dewi Lake
A very solid prognosis, although Lake hadn't started regional rugby when it was made four years ago. Since then, he has achieved tremendous success and can even be called a captain. Little concerns remain about the consistency of his lineout roll, but he's a phenomenal physical specimen and Gatland is sure to love him.
Tighthead prop
Predicted starter in 2019: Tomas Francis
Likely starter now: Tomas Francis
Francis has been a regular for Wales for several years and is almost a favorite in the opening game against Fiji in September, although he has opponents. Dillon Lewis is a much more mobile option, and Henry Thomas could still come out of nowhere to be first if he performs at set pieces and around the park during the August warm-ups. For now, the smart money is focused on Francis heading to Provence.
Second row
Predicted starter in 2019: Jake Ball
Likely starter now: Will Rowlands
This time four years ago we didn't know that Jake Ball would be living in Japan and we didn't know that Will Rowlands had a Wales qualification. Fast forward to 2023 and Ball is out of the loop after effectively ending his international career by moving overseas while Rowlands is one of the top names on the team list. It remains one of the best Welsh rugby events under Wayne Peevak.
Second row
Predicted starter in 2019: Adam Beard
Likely starter now: Adam Beard
Adam Byrd is on a long list of players the public subject to a rough ride, but Gatland is a big fan and publicly mentioned the Ospreys man when asked who impressed him in Rugby World Cup practice. The giant does a lot of invisible work while he is a key member of the leader group and runs the corridors. Solid forecast.
Blindside flanker
Predicted starter in 2019: Josh Navidi
Likely starter now: Jac Morgan
Fate has been cruel to Navidi in recent years, with the flanker having to retire from rugby earlier this year and give up any hope of another Rugby World Cup appearance.
As for Morgan, four years ago nobody needed him. Indeed, during his formative years, he was considered redundant in the Scarlets academy. He eventually began training in engineering and played for Aberavon. His performances in the Welsh Premier League and at the Welsh age level convinced the Scarlets to change their minds. In January 2019 they came back for him, but he initially continued to play in the Welsh Premier League to continue his development.
Fast forward a few years and he will be one of the best all-around players in Wales, now with the Osprey, and a real contender for the national team captaincy.
Openside flanker
Predicted starter in 2019: Justin Tipuric
Likely starter now: Tommy Reffell
Tipurik may not have been sure he would still be on the international stage when one looked into the crystal ball four years ago, but his great Osprey form last season proved he was still a player at 33. A place in the Rugby World Cup squad and a likely starting spot seemed like a worthy bet until he abruptly ended his Wales career in a shocking announcement back in May.
There is a fierce battle going on in the back row for Wales, but assuming Morgan will play six, Reffell will play seven. He came to attention four years ago at Leicester and has been going strong ever since.
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